PREDICT - PREparing for the Domino effect in Crisis siTuations

Recobia gray background


The aim of the PREDICT project is to provide a comprehensive solution for dealing with cascading effects in multi-sectoral crisis situations covering aspects of critical infrastructures. The PREDICT solution will consist of a suite of decision support tools (DST) integrating different services facilitating foresight, prediction, communication and eventually decision making in crisis situation. This suite of tools will be based on improved and innovative methodologies, models and software tools. It will increase the awareness and understanding of cascading effects by crisis response organisations, enhance their preparedness and improve their capability to respond in case of cascading failures.

For information on the work and progress achieved in PREDICT, see the Deliverables section.




The high-quality of the developed solutions is assured by a consortium consisting of a number of experienced partners joining:

- Research & Technology Organisations: the CEA, Fraunhofer, VTT, and TNO.

- End-user organisations: the International Union of Railways (UIC), the Safety authority of South-Holland-South Region, and the Finnish environment institute (SYKE).

- Large industry actors and SMEs with a strong expertise in crisis management: CEIS, Thales, and iTTi. 

End-user engagement

End-users are being deeply involved in PREDICT at three levels, as:

- Partners of the consortium helping the rest of the partners to better understand the needs of crisis management and critical infrastructure organisations and assessing the work done based on their operational expertise

- Members of the Advisory Board providing an external opinion to the Consortium and complementary points of view and ideas on the progress of PREDICT.

- External experts from civil protection organisations, national ministries, and critical infrastructures across Europe participating in a series of workshops to express their needs and requirements. It provides the partners with the opportunity to collect additional inputs and orient the developments of the PREDICT solutions. This continous engagement with external end-users is also the opportunity to present and disseminate the results of the research.


Project approach

The PREDICT project starts from a deep analysis of recent cases (over 8500 incidents worldwide), accompanied with scenarios of potential crisis. Project partners aim at setting up a generic approach (common framework) to prevent or mitigate cascading effects which will be applied in selected cases agreed with end-users. As modelling each phenomenon separately in a specific environment is not effective, the PREDICT project proposes cohesive and comprehensive models of dependencies, cascading effects and common mode failure which include causal relations, multi-sectoral infrastructure elements and environment parameters, as well as the human factor aspects. 

PREDICT will deliver software tools bundled in the PREDICT Incident Evolution Tool, which will consist of two core components: a Foresight and Prediction Tool (for simulation of the evolution of cascading effect and impact on multi-sectoral dependencies) and a Decision-Support Tool (for determining the best course of action and to calculate the risk associated with them).