PREDICT - PREparing for the Domino effect in Crisis siTuations

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Initiatives at the European Union level


ESReDA (European Safety, Reliability and Data Association) provides a forum for the exchange of information, data and current research in Safety and Reliability and a focus for specialist expertise. The Safety and Reliability of processes and products are topics which are the focus of increasing interest Europe wide. Safety and Reliability Engineering is viewed as being an important component in the design of a system. However the discipline and its tools and methods are still evolving and expertise and knowledge dispersed throughout Europe. There is a need to pool the resources and knowledge within Europe and ESReDA provides the means to achieve this. 

ESReDA - in which several members of the PREDICT consortium are members - organises regular conferences and workshops gathering European experts and networks on Critical Infrastructures Protection (CIP).

CIWIN - Critical Infrastructure Warning And Information Network

The Critical Infrastructure Warning Information Network (CIWIN) has been developed as a Commission owned protected public internet based information and communication system, offering recognised members of the EU’s CIP community the opportunity to exchange and discuss CIP-related information, studies and/or good practices across all EU Member States and in all relevant sectors of economic activity. DG HOME coordinates all activities relating to CIWIN. A Library of documents and a Calendar of events allow for all EU projects to disseminate information.

ERN-CIP – European Reference Network on Critical Infrastructure Protection

The European Reference Network for Critical Infrastructure Protection (ERNCIP) aims at providing a framework within which experimental facilities and laboratories will share knowledge and expertise in order to harmonise test protocols throughout Europe, leading to better protection of critical infrastructures against all types of threats and hazards and to the creation of a single market for security solutions. The EU Joint Research Centre (JRC) set up and manages this network.

DG ECHO – Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC)

The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), operating within the European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department (ECHO), was set up to support a coordinated and quicker response to disasters both inside and outside Europe using resources from the countries participating in the Union Civil Protection Mechanism. With a capacity to deal with several simultaneous emergencies in different time zones, around-the-clock, the ERCC is a coordination hub facilitating a coherent European response during emergencies helping to cut unnecessary and expensive duplication of efforts.

TNCEIP – Thematic Network on Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection

The Thematic Network on Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection (TNCEIP) for the energy sector allows operators to exchange information on threat assessment, risk management, cyber security, etc.


EU projects on better understanding of the cascading effect in crisis situations

PREDICT contributes to the development of synergies with the SNOWBALL, CASCEFF and FORTRESS projects which are also related to critical infrastructure protection against cascading effects in crisis stuations. Indeed, the EU promotes the establishment of effective coordination between different research project adressing similar issues. The objective is to avoid redundancies and potential duplications of efforts and to improve the quality of the expected results and boost their impact. In this regad, PREDICT took part in a first workshop on synergies organised by the REA. 
Snowball -
Snowball aims at lowering the impact of aggravating factors in crisis situation thanks to adaptative foresight and decision-support tools. Snowball project aims at increasing the prepardness of the European Union in respect to hazards that could amplify a large crisis. SnowBall outcomes will primariy consist in a deep analysis of cascading effects, in the development of methods to anticipate them, and in a Decision Support System able to display current crisis monitoring and results of simulated decisions integrating cascading effects.
CascEff -

The aim of the CascEff project is to improve our understanding of cascading effects in crisis situations to reduce the consequences of escalating incidents in complex environments. CascEff project will identify initiators, dependencies and key decision points. These will be used to develop an Incident Evolution Tool which will enable improved decision support in escalating incidents, contributing to the reduction of collateral damages and other unfortunate consequences associated with large crises.


FORTRESS (Foresight Tools for Responding to cascading effects in a crisis) is a three year project to identify and understand cascading effects of a crisis by using evidence-based information from a range of previous crisis situations. FORTRESS aims to improve crisis management practices by identifying the diversity of such cascading effects. Its main outputs include the development of a predictive model addressing potential impacts of decisions made in crisis situations, and the development of an incident evolution tool to assist decision-makers in preparing and training for crises with cascading effects.


Other related European projects

CIPRNet - The Critical Infrastructure Preparedness and Resilience Research Network

The Critical Infrastructure Preparedness and Resilience Research Network or CIPRNet establishes a Network of Excellence in Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP). By integrating resources of the CIPRNet partners acquired in more than 60 EU co-funded research projects, CIPRNet will create new advanced capabilities for its stakeholders. CIPRNet builds a long-lasting virtual centre of shared and integrated knowledge and expertise in CIP.

The participation of several PREDICT partners in CIPRNet - namely Fraunhofer, the CEA, TNO and the UIC - greatly facilitates the implementation of synergies between these two projects.


The INFRARISK vision is to develop reliable stress tests to establish the resilience of European CI to rare low frequency extreme events and to aid decision making in the long term regarding robust infrastructure development and protection of existing infrastructure.


The CRISMA project developed a simulation-based decision support system, for modelling crisis management, improved action and preparedness. The CRISMA System aimed at facilitating simulation and modelling of realistic crisis scenarios, possible response actions, and the impacts of crisis depending on both the external factors driving the crisis development and the various actions of the crisis management team.

VTT - one of the members of the PREDICT consortium - is the coordinator of the CRISMA project.

          EUCONCIP -  

The EUCONCIP project - European Cooperation Network on Critical Infrastructure Protection, is a European Commission DG Home Affairs funded project, under the Pre­ven­tion, Pre­pared­ness and Con­se­quence Man­age­ment of Ter­ror­ism and other Security-​related Risks pro­gramme (CIPS). The project aims at set­ting the ground for a Euro­pean part­ner­ship between crit­i­cal infra­struc­tures’ stake­hold­ers to strengthen public-​private inter­na­tional coop­er­a­tion, train­ing and cross-​border/​cross-​sector knowl­edge build­ing and the exchange of pub­lic avail­able infor­ma­tion on Crit­i­cal Infra­struc­ture Protection.

          EPISECC -

The project EPISECC is aiming at developing a concept of a common “European Information Space”. This information space is dedicated to become the key element in a future integrated pan-European crisis and disaster response capacity. Besides the development of a common Taxonomy and an ontology model, aimed at addressing the Semantic Interoperability issue, EPISECC will focus on the establishment of Interoperability at Physical (i.e. network) and Syntactical (i.e. automated information exchange) levels. One of the main purposes of the EPISECC approach, is to allow analysis of interoperability at all levels.