PREDICT - PREparing for the Domino effect in Crisis siTuations

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Objectives

The aim of the PREDICT project is to provide a comprehensive solution for dealing with cascading effects in multi-sectoral crisis situations covering aspects of critical infrastructures. The PREDICT solution will consist of a suite of decision support tools (DST) integrating different services facilitating foresight, prediction, communication and eventually decision making in crisis situation. This suite of tools will be based on improved and innovative methodologies, models and software tools. It will increase the awareness and understanding of cascading effects by crisis response organisations, enhance their preparedness and improve their capability to respond in case of cascading failures. 


Acronym
PREDICT
Project name
PREparing for the Domino effect In Crisis siTuations
Project reference
607697
Project coordinator
Dominique Sérafin, CEA
Starting date
1 April 2014
Duration
36 months
Total cost
4,635,020.99€
EU contribution
3,460,192.99€

 
The high-quality of the developed solutions is assured by a consortium consisting of a number of experienced partners joining research, industrial (incl. SME), and end-users approaches. End-users are being deeply involved in PREDICT at three levels: as partners of the consortium (there are three end-users in the consortium), members of the Advisory Board, and as external experts from relevant crisis management organisations across Europe involved in PREDICT through a series of five workshops.
 
PREDICT project starts from a deep analysis of recent cases (over 8500 incidents worldwide), accompanied with scenarios of potential crisis. Project partners aims at setting up a generic approach (common framework) to prevent or mitigate cascading effects which will be applied in selected cases agreed with end-users. As modelling each phenomenon separately in a specific environment is not effective, PREDICT project proposes cohesive and comprehensive models of dependencies, cascading effects and common mode failure which include causal relations, multi-sectoral infrastructure elements and environment parameters, as well as the human factor aspects. 
 
PREDICT will deliver software tools bundled in PREDICT Incident Evolution Tool, which will consist of two core components: a Foresight and Prediction Tool (for simulation of the evolution of cascading effect and impact on multi-sectoral dependencies) and a Decision-Support Tool (for determining the best course of action and to calculate the risk associated with them).
 

 
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predict-flyer.pdf1011.57 KB