PREDICT - PREparing for the Domino effect in Crisis siTuations

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Publications

Communicating on PREDICT findings in the scientific community with papers published in journal has three main impacts: it contributes to the overall dissemination efforts, it ensures that the findings of the project will be useful for future research and projects, and it contributes to validating these findings by peers.

In PREDICT, publications is deliberately aimed at different journals to access both the scientific community and the practitioners community.

2017

Name

Partner(s) involved  Short description
PREDICT project dissemination brochure UIC This PDF-brochure will make a‘user-friendly’ wrap-up of the PREDICT main outcomes, exploitable by the rail sector even after the end of the project.

Cascading Effects Conference – Understanding, modelling and managing cascading effects in crisis

UIC UIC e-News article reporting on the Cascading Effects Conference– joint event held in Brussels 

Cascading Effects Conference – Understanding, modelling and managing cascading effects in crisis

UIC Summary of PREDICT’s project, disseminated internally
Jingquan Xie and Betim Sojeva. Spatial-aware Iterative Integration of Crisis Management Information Systems Fraunhofer

Article in the CIPRNet ECN Newsletter (Vol. 11, No. 1)

Helminen, A. & Hakkarainen, T. Modelling approach for the threat quantification of cascading failures VTT

An abstract submitted to Nordic Fire & Safety Days; to be presented in Copenhagen, Denmark

Rosqvist, T. Information and confidence levels in risk results – can both be obtained? VTT

Paper and presentation accepted to European Safety and Reliability Conference ESREL 2017, in Portorož, Slovenia. Related to the work of WP6.

2016

Cahuzac-Soave O., de Maupeou M., Managing cascading effects, Crisis Reponse Journal (CRJ) 12:2, December 2016 CEIS Presentation of the project, its progress and the final steps, with an emphasis on the involvement of European crisis management practitioners. 
Sojeva B., Xie J., (2016) Spatial-aware Iterative Integration of Crisis Management Information Systems
Conference: International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies for Disaster Management (ICT-DM’2016).
Fraunhofer In this paper, an iterative system integration approach is proposed by harmonising service oriented, model-driven and agile system development.
Hanski, J., Rosqvist, T. & Kunttu, S., A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions, September 2016 VTT Paper and presentation in ESREL 2016, 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK, 25-29 September 2016. Abstract related to the work of WP6.
A. Grangeat, F. Brill, S. Raclot, & E. Lapebie. (2016). Mapping of Areas, Presenting Specific Risks to Firefighters due to Buried Technical Networks. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings – 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil:Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. CEA Paper for a Special Issue of the International Journal of Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (IJISCRAM) and presented at ISCRAM Conference 2016.
Eid M., Kling, T. & Hakkarainen T., Critical infrastructure preparedness: cascading of disruptions considering vulnerability and dependency, July 2016. CEA, VTT
Published in the Journal of Polish Safety & Reliability Society (JPSRA),   JPSRA-2016 VOLUME 7, NUMBER 1, ISSN 2084-5316.
 
The paper was presented in as invited paper during the SSARS”2016, June 19-25, 2016, Gdansk, Poland.
Kling, T. & Hakkarainen T., Incident evolution framework for crisis situations – Methodologies for the operation time model, June 2016. VTT Abstract and presentation in the Nordic Fire & Safety Days 2016. Aalborg University, Copenhagen, Denmark, 16-17 June 2016.
Greangeat A., The use of Critical Infrastructure Dependency Modelling Challenges and Simulation for Emergency Management and Decision Making by the Civil Safety Authorities, June 2016 CEA Updated article and presentation at EUCONCIP Final conference
Klaver M.H.A., Luiijf H.A.M., Nieuwenhuijs A.N., van Os N., Oskam V. (2016) Critical Infrastructure Assessment by Emergency Management.
In: Rome E., Theocharidou M., Wolthusen S. (eds) Critical Information Infrastructures Security. CRITIS 2015. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 9578. Springer, Cham
TNO, VRZHZ This paper describes a methodology for emergency management organizations to assess the impact of CI disruptions. The methodology takes into account common cause failures affecting multiple CI concurrently, cascading effects as well as the potential disruptive impact on emergency management operations.
De Oude P., Attractor-Directed Particle Filtering with potential Fields, April 2016. Thales TRT NL This paper was presented at the Fusion 2016 conference (www.fusion2016.org) in Heidelberg, Germany, July 5-8 2016.
Labreuche C., On capacities characterized by two weight vectors, June 2016. Thales TRT

Article presented during the International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty (IPMU’2016), Eindhoven, The Netherlands, 20-24 June 2016

Kling, T. & Hakkarainen, T, Incident evolution framework for crisis situations – Methodologies for the operation time model, February 2016. VTT Abstract accepted for oral presentationto the Nordic Fire & Safety Days 2016, to be held at Aalborg University in Copenhagen 16-17 June 2016. 
A. Grangeat, J. Sina, V. Rosato, A. Bony and M. Theocharidou, (2016) Human vulnerability mapping facing critical service disruptions for crisis managers.  
11th International Conference on Critical Information Infrastructures Security CRITIS, Paris, France, October 10-12, 2016.
CEA

CYCA paper. 

Abstract presented to the ISCRAM 2016 conference. 

Grangeat, A.The Challenges of Critical Infrastructure Dependency Modelling And Simulation. CEA

Paper for Emergency Management And Decision Making By The Civil Safety Authorities. Presentation for EUCONCIP European Cooperation Network on Critical Infrastructure Protection, Brussels 26p.

Submission of an article taking stock of the progress of the project for the October 2016 issue of the journal. CEIS

Presentation of the project, its progress and the next steps. Emphasis on the involvement of end-users 

Jingquan XIE. Semantic RESTful services for Crisis Management Systems Integration

Fraunhofer

Paper submitted to CRITIS 2016 Conference

Authors: Amélie Grangeat, Floriane Brill, Stéphane Raclot. Automatic mapping of areas presenting specific risks linked to buried technical networks for firefighters.

CEA An abstract submitted to the ISCRAM 2016 conference.

2015

Critical information infrastructures security VRZHZ,TNO

Authors: Rome E., Theocharidou M., Wolthusen S. In CRITIS 2015. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 9578. Springer, Cham.

Hanski, J. & Rosqvist, T., A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions, December 2015 VTT Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice, European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016, 25 - 29 September 2016, Glasgow, Scotland. Taylor and Francis Group
C. Labreuche, S. Destercke, B. Mayag., Elicitation of a utility from uncertainty equivalent without standard gambles, July 2015. Thales TRT Presented during the 13th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty (ECSQARU'15). Compiègne, France, July 2015.
Dependencies and Chain Effects in National Security & Crisis Management Journal, May 2015.

VRZHZ,TNO

Publications from PREDICT partners Marieke Klaver, Eric Luiijf, Rob Peters, Nico van Os and René Willems appear in the "Magazine Nationale Veiligheid en Crisisbeheersing"
M. Eid, Y. Barbarin, D. Serafin, Critical Infrastructures Protection (CIP) – contribution to EU research on resilience & preparedness in Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, April 2015. CEA
Authors & Reference : Mohamed Eid, Yohan Barbarin, Dominique Serafin - Volume 5, Number 1, 2014
Link: 
 
Controlling the domino effects in crisis situations – Paper from the Fire Research Days 2015. VTT, SYKE Researchers at VTT presented a Paper on PREDICT at the 2015 Fire Research Days, held in Espoo (Finland) on the 24 & 25 of August 2015. This paper is available in the Rescue Services Information journal (Pelastustieto) which published the proceedings of the seminar in a special issue.
Addressing Cascading Crises in Europe in Crisis Response Journal 10 :2, December 2014 CEIS
Presentation of the project, its objectives.
 

2014

Adressing Cascading Crises in Europe in Crisis Response Journal 10:2 CEIS

Presentation of the project, its objectives. Emphasis on the added value for end-users

Cascading failures: Dynamic Model for CIP Purposes - Case of Random Failures Following Poisson Stochastic Process CEA, VTT

Eid, M., Kling, T., Hakkarainen, T., Barbarin, Y. Grangeat, A., & Sérafin, D. Paper and presentation in CRITIS 2014, 9th International Conference on Critical Information Infrastructures Security, Limassol, Cyprus.

The domino effects in crisis situations VTT, SYKE

Hakkarainen, T., Kling, T., Heikkilä, A.-M., Porthin, M., Haapasaari, H. & Rytkönen, J. An extended abstract for the Researcher Seminar of Rescue Services in Finland, Kuopio, Finland.