PREDICT - PREparing for the Domino effect in Crisis siTuations

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Use Cases

Three use cases have been developed in the framework of the PREDICT project. Based on realistic scenarios of crisis involving multiple domino effects, they aim at implementing, deploying and testing in an operational environment the suite of tools developed in the project. Through these use cases, the PREDICT partners seek validation and feedback from the end-users on the functionalities of the tools. This interaction with the end-users is mainly articulated around the three following steps (for each use case):

- Multiple initial meetings with the relevant stakeholders and end-user organisations

- Fall 2015 workshop to present to the end-users the work in progress on the PREDICT tools' development 

- Fall 2016 workshop to present an advanced version of the PREDICT tools and validate their added value to support end-users' work

This will enable the project partners to validate the applicability and the availability of the tools at functional, operational and organizational levels.

Flooding in the Netherlands


Scenario: A breach develops in the south dike of a lowland area (polder) between two main rivers in the Rhine-Maas delta region. This breach leads to a failure of the small dams lying directly behind it. The water floods several cities, railways and motorways in the 7 days following the break.

Lead organisation: VRZHZ - South-Holland-South Safety Region

End-user organisations identified: Safety Region, Water Board, National Government, Municipalities, Drinkwater & Energy suppliers, ICT & Telecom, Industry, Transport & Logistics

Train derailment at the Belgium/German border


Scenario: The first wagons of a train loaded with chemicals and liquid gas derail due to high speed. Two tank cars loaded with liquid gas ignite. The wind transports the toxic chemical cloud towards the populated areas. The toxic cloud further contaminates the ground, water and crops. The derailment shuts down transportation on the line.

Lead organisation: UIC – International Union of Railways

End-user organisations identified: DB Security Corporate Unit, Infrabel, Aachen Fire Department, German Federal Police, German Emergency Services, German Civil Protection, Belgium Civil Protection

Maritime incident in Finland


Scenario: A container vessel containing hazardous and noxious substances is in the waiting area of the Vuossari Harbour. A blackout leads to the grounding in small islets. Fuel starts leaking from the vessel and two containers are lost at sea. One container is damaged leading to the release of a gas cloud, transported towards densely populated areas.

Lead organisation: SYKE – Finnish Environment Institute

End-user organisations identified: Finnish Border Guard & Customs, Finnish Environment Institute, Finnish Navy, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki harbor, Helsinki Rescue department, Finnish Transport Safety Agency, Finnish Transport Agency, Oil company, VTT