PREDICT - PREparing for the Domino effect in Crisis siTuations

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This section contains links to the deliverables of the PREDICT project that are produced by the partners during the project implementation. Public deliverables are available to the consultation of the general public while restricted deliverables are only presented by a public executive summary and accessible to a limited audience.

D1.4 Advisory Board (Public)

This deliverable provides a general presentation of the PREDICT Advisory Board and details on the activities. The key objective of the Advisory Board is to ensure that the PREDICT project team benefits from the expertise and experience of the Advisory Board members. The Advisory Board is made of experts with considerable experience in European security research and crisis management thus will advise the PREDICT Team on the technical, strategic, management and communication levels and beyond when required according to their expertise.


D1.5 Report on compliance with ethical and social issues (Restricted)

This document gives an overview of measures relevant to ethical issues put in place in the PREDICT project. It also assesses how the PREDICT consortium and the Project Management Team give careful consideration to the ethical and social dimension of their work. This Report of compliance with Ethical and Social issues aims to assess that all the research activities carried out under the PREDICT project are conducted in compliance with the “European fundamental ethical principles” (Decision n°1982/2006/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council, article 61).

D2.1 State of the art of the R&D activities in Cascade effect & resilience and global modelling (Restricted)

The main objective of the deliverable D2.1 is to establish the state-of-the-art on the R&D activities in Cascade Effect & Resilience in crisis situation. This assessment will lay the foundation for a better understanding of the cascade effects and resilience in complex systems. This is a primary step towards the development of PREDICT predictive tools suite for MS&A of cascading effects in crisis situation.

The state of the art is categorized in main areas that we deemed relevant for the tasks in PREDICT: threats identification and classification, dependencies and interdependencies between critical systems, and crisis management and decision support system (DSS) specifications, relevant data and databases identification, failures propagation, threats detecting and periodic monitoring, cascade dynamic modelling and resilience metrics. In addition to these major areas, D2.1 will also be focusing on the identification of the state of the art in taxonomies that are relevant to threats, critical infrastructure, and crisis codifications. 


D2.2 Security Metrics for Threats, for Systems' Resilience MS&A Activities (Public)

D2.2 defines criteria for the security metrics for measuring threats, resilience (CI dependencies and cascading of failures) and consequences. T2.2 also gives recommendations on the security metrics to be used in the integrated PREDICT DSS Tool (iPDT). That will allow providing stakeholders with rational measurements for making the right decision at the right time based on a clear metrics (identifying and ranking potential cascading scenarios, assessing impacts and supporting decisions regarding barriers, prognostic schemes and precursor signs).

The starting point for the security metrics identification and assessment is a comprehensive state-of-the-art analysis of different types of security metrics used or that can be used in the Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) field. This state-of-the-art analysis is based on several data sources: MS&A literature of threats, available reports on real past crises, relevant databases (threat DBs, CI operators DBs, accidents analysis DBs, crisis DB and insurance companies DB).

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D2.3 DSS and predictive tools feature specifications (Public)

PREDICT Work Package 2 (WP2) provides a baseline for understanding cascade effects and resilience in Critical Infrastructures facing given threats. This comprehensive assessment of cascading effects and resilience of systems is a primary step towards the development of the appropriate PREDICT cascade effect Modelling, Simulation and Analysis (MS&A) tool suite.

This document is the deliverable D2.3 corresponding to the WP2’s Task 2.3 called technical specifications but the most appropriate wording at this stage of the project is tools feature specifications. The final specifications for our DSS (Decision Support System) will actually be set in the technical work-packages of the project (WP4-5-6) sticking as much as possible to the proposed features of this deliverable but taking into account the technologies that can be used in the project and the timeframe. The specifications will be coordinated in WP4 System Design & Iterative Integration as the initial goal of this WP is to create the architecture of the integrated PREDICT DSS tool (iPDT).

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D3.1 Methodology for the identification and probability assessment of cascading effects (Public)

This deliverable presents the result of Task 3.1 of the PREDICT project, in which an approach was developed to recognise the potential cascading effects during a crisis scenario. The objective of Task 3.1 was to translate the recommendations of D2.1 into a practical procedure. To this end, the case studies of the PREDICT project were used as points of reference during the development of the approach. The PREDICT approach describes the steps to perform a mixed qualitative/quantitative analysis which generates a time-dependent cascade function for the main Critical Infrastructure (CI) elements in the area. 


D3.2 Methods of threat quantification (Public)

This deliverable presents the results of PREDICT Task 3.2 – Threat quantification. The purpose of Task 3.2 is to specify the physical and systemic models of threats related to the incidents, and to put predicted effects on the same timeline in order to create a common picture of the situation.

A modelling approach for threat quantification has been generated using the PREDICT case studies as development environment. This has been conducted using a flooding scenario in a densely populated area as an example. The threats to the critical infrastructures in the PREDICT case studies, as well as their vulnerabilities and dependencies, have been identified and characterized in order to define the modelling requirements for threat quantification.  


D3.3 Methodologies for the operation time model lay-out and specification (Public)

This document describes the outcomes of the PREDICT Task 3.3 which focuses on the modelling of response actions and organizations. This is a part of the “incident evolution framework”, developed in WP3, which aims at developing a methodology for understanding the incident evolution based on different kinds of data, including results of computational modelling and simulations. Crisis management decisions require the estimation of the responding organization’s capability to perform the planned activity. Such a capability has two aspects: temporal response (when will the response take place) and reliability (will it take place, and how well). 

D4.1 System Design Document (Restricted)

This document describes the conceptual design of the integrated PREDICT tool suite, the design methodology used, the chosen architectural approach, and technical requirements and use cases at the integrated systems level. The PREDICT tool suite consists of the foresight and prediction tools (FPT) that are to be developed in WP5 and the decision support tools (DST) that are to be developed in WP6. This deliverable makes explicit contributions to the following objectives of PREDICT’s WP4: designe an adapted system architecture, define a design methodology for the system architecture and prepare the realisation the system architecture.

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D4.2 System design realisation (Restricted)

In this document, an overview of the integrated system iPDT is given at first to provide a big picture about the software system that to be developed in PREDICT. Runtime architecture is elaborated as well to shape the production environment of iPDT. In essence, one of the major tasks of developing iPDT is to integrate various system components that will be developed in WP5 and WP6. Classical system integration paradigms are discussed and we have decided for using the more recent and lightweight RESTful Web Services to accomplish the integration task. 

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D5.1 PREDICT-FPT design document (Restricted)

The document describes the design of the PREDICT Foresight and Prediction Tool (FPT). It consists of the overall vision, logical architecture, basic features, interactions with other PREDICT decision support tool suite (iPDT) elements, system software architecture, development and deployment environment and concept of the graphical user interface design. PREDICT Foresight and Prediction Tools will be a modular software designed and developed for the purpose of modelling and simulation of specific cascade effect aspects. The FPT will also incorporate the elements of systematic value-based methodology that interlinks best practices and some metrics for proactive and resilient security management. 

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D5.2 PREDICT-FPT Simulation Engine (Public)

The concept of the PREDICT – FPT simulation is to follow a stateless approach, which is partially based on the Discrete Event Simulation concept. Thus there is no continuous simulation being processed, as there is a simulation-on-demand (step by step approach) implemented. Hence the interactions (also referred as ‘actions’) with the user and external tools are required. Following interactions are distinguished in the PREDICT – FPT simulation process: (i) sending and receiving simulation data from/to external tool, (ii) ad–hoc interactions with the user or user’s action, and (iii) execution of a simulation module of the PREDICT – FPT. 


D6.1 Requirement and specifications report of decision support tools (Restricted)

This documents starts with a general description of the decision support functionality that is proposed to support cascading effect management (see Section 3). It is called “cascading effect–based decision support”. Based on interviews of end-users in crisis management, we first describe the current practice of crisis management when cascading effect is expected to arise and then identify the specific end-users needs related to cascading effects. We illustrate this mainly on the flooding use- case of PREDICT, but it can be generalized to many situations.

In one word, end-users ask for a tool that supports "situation awareness" of the group of decision makers and not the "decision making" activity. To this end, based on the simulation of cascading effects produced by PROCeed and SBR, we first assess the impact of the forecasted cascading effects, and then assess the associated risk using standard quantitative techniques (such as expected utility or MinMax Regret). The associated MYRIAD module will thus be based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques for the assessment of the impacts, and Decision Under Uncertainty (DUU) for the quantitative risk assessment. It is important to note that the forecast of cascading effects is not made by the MYRIAD module but by the predictive tools PROCEED and SBR. The specificity of cascading effects is that the MCDA model shall be multi-sectorial, as the main features of cascading effects is that a disruption in one sector (e.g. the fire in a railway tunnel) propagates to many other sectors (e.g. disruption in communication, electricity and water supply). In the MCDA approach, a set of attributes are transformed into criteria, which are then aggregated into a global indicator to be used in consequences identification and classification (CIC). 

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D6.2 Cognitive analysis to support decision tools specifications (Public)

To obtain an understanding of the user’s processes, cognitive task analysis can be used. One specific method that was used is Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA) that helps to identify the different subtasks and sub-goals needed for a user to achieve a certain result (i.e. high-level goal or task). To perform a HTA, information was collected from end-user workshop sessions. For example in the Netherlands during one of the workshops a regional operational team (ROT) simulation was executed. The data collected from this simulation was used as input to construct the HTA tree with the different task and subtasks. The challenge, however, is to prevent that the HTA tree is too focused on a single type of crisis. In order to make the HTA tree generic enough to include also other type of crises, we used the, so called, BOB-model (similar to the OODA-loop used in the Netherlands) to identify the high level tasks crisis managers will have to work on during a crisis. From these high level tasks we identified lower level tasks using information that was generated during the ROT simulation and check that they could be used for two very different test cases. 

D7.1 End-user Requirements (Restricted)

The objectives of work package 7 are to engage public authorities, first responders and critical infrastructure operators from different (and cross-border) sectors for understanding the (potential) cascading effects in crisis situations; to evaluate with them the potential of the PREDICT tools and methods suite.  For that matter serve a series of workshops around three use cases (flooding, cross-border railway accident and maritime incident).

This document presents the outcome of first engagements with end-users and stakeholders. From all three cases observations were made that both public authorities and CI operators do understand very well their own processes and requirements and their dependencies on the provision of services by other parties.

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D7.2 Guidelines for Test Cases (Restricted)

Focus of the PREDICT tool suite is to provide information and decision support to crisis management teams operating at tactical levels (“off-site”) and in doing so increase awareness and understanding of cascading effects, enhance preparedness, and improve response capability in case of cascading failures and contribute to lower casualties, damages and other cascading consequences. To test and assess the value of the PREDICT tools a two-step approach will be followed. First, at the Fall 2015 workshops, the functionalities of the tools will be presented to end-users for their appreciation. With the feedback from these workshops, then in the second series of workshops (Fall 2016) the tools will be tested under ‘operational’ conditions.

This document provides guidance to the use case leaders to prepare for these workshops, This also includes arrangements between case leaders and tool developers for timely interaction and preparation of tools (in mock-up formats) for presentation at the Fall 2015 workshops. Also a foundation has been laid to assess the value added of the tools, for which a set of criteria has been provided concerning functional and organizational/technical dimensions.

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D7.3 Case study results reports on case studies - workshops on operational context (Public)

The purpose of PREDICT Work Package 7 is to test with end-users the PREDICT tools and the integrated PREDICT tool suite (iPDT). To achieve this, the project works with three use cases. This report presents the findings of the case sessions that were held in Fall 2015. At these sessions the concepts of the PREDICT tools and their functionalities have been presented. At this stage of their development, the tools have been presented in ‘mock-up’ type formats.  
For two cases feedback from attendees on tool appreciation was collected making use of the questionnaire; the third case (railway-incident) provided qualitative remarks, which were extrapolated from the discussions with the end-users. General conclusions from the sessions concerning the tools and their value are that they seem more promising for training and planning purposes, rather than for operational use, where end-users do not see a need for additional tools. 

D7.5 Training methodology report (Public)

The introduction of iPDT will change the structure and tasks of the crisis management organisations. Training is paramount for successful acceptance and implementation of technology in any organisation. The aim of this report is to present a training approach and considerations for the selection of tools for training of crisis management operations. More specifically, the focus of this report is on a general outline for introducing the integrated PREDICT Decision support Tool (iPDT) to the stakeholders (and users) and on the design of the training for end-users. 

We have provided a stepwise methodology (Event Based Approach to Training - EBAT) to develop such necessary training and we have given examples how this method can be used for training of crisis managers using iPDT.  


D8.1 Minutes of the end-user workshops #1 (Public)

This workshop, organised by CEIS in the framework of WP8 “End-user network”, was held in Paris on 2 October 2014. The aim of the workshop, “Crisis Management & resilience, operational needs & solutions to mitigate cascading effects”, was to introduce the PREDICT project to its community of end-users, to introduce and discuss the concept of cascading effects, to present the first results of the project, and to exchange with the participants through group sessions and questionnaires, in order to gather their inputs on decision support tools. End-users showed a great interest in the workshop. 10 crisis management organisations stemming from 9 European countries and the European Commission attended the workshop. Two related FP7 projects were also represented. Finally, 6 partners of the PREDICT project were present (see list below for more detail on the participants).

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D8.2 Minutes of Workshop 2 - “Managing cascading effects: understanding the incident evolution” (Public)

This document synthesises the exchanges held during the second end-user workshop of the PREDICT project. This workshop, organised by CEIS - in collaboration with VTT - in the framework of WP8 “End-user network”, was held in Brussels on 10 June 2015.End-users showed a great interest in the workshop. Representatives of 16 crisis management organisations stemming from 13 European countries and the European Commission attended the workshop. Seven partners of the PREDICT project were also represented.

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D8.3 Minutes of Workshop 3 - "Decision-support, foresight and prediction tools in support of crisis and disaster management operations: introducing the PREDICT solution" (Public)

This document synthesises the exchanges held during the third end-user workshop of the PREDICT project. This workshop, organised by CEIS - in collaboration with Fraunhofer - in the framework of WP8 “End-user network”, was held in Brussels on 11 December 2015. 

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D9.1 Updated Dissemination Plan (Public)

This document presents the key purposes of the dissemination activities within the PREDICT project, which are to (i) Raise awareness on the existence of the project; (ii) Inform target audiences on progress made along the project; (iii) Engage with the community of crisis management professionals and organisations and get feedback contributing to the quality of the research and results; (iv) Promote the outputs and the results of the project; and (v) to achieve adoption of project results and proposed innovations by reaching out professionals in the field of crisis and disaster management. The dissemination strategy gives the main directions and measures to ensure that the project’s research and outcomes are widely disseminated to the appropriate target audiences, with appropriate methods, at appropriate times.
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Communication and dissemination materials