PREDICT - PREparing for the Domino effect in Crisis siTuations

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The PREDICT Tool Suite

PREDICT will create a tool suite (iPDT) consisting of decision-support tools and foresight and prediction tools for crisis management (CM), specifically for situation awareness staff and decision takers, which we have identied to be common roles in diifferent CM governance structures. The goal is to provide added-value information on the behaviour of Critical Infrastructures (CI) in crisis situations, foremost on the evolution of cascading effects and their impacts on CM operations. 

The approach is scenario based, that is, based on current situation information, iPDT computes likelihoods of fictitious future scenarios and determines a set of most likely scenarios (SBR, scenario based reasoning). For these scenarios, iPDT would provide situation information related to cascading effects in CI (PROCeed tool). The combined results are fed into a third component, MYRIAD, that would evaluate the situation information according to certain metrics in order to further eliminate less likely possible scenarios. For example, the fictitious future scenarios could describe CI outages of different lengths and indicate consequences of the outages and limitations of response and mitigation actions dependent on the duration of the outage. iPDT is currently under development. 

In addition, PREDICT will create information-sharing tools for crisis management teams. These tools will allow distributed crisis management staff and experts (like liaisons at CI operators or communal administration) to dynamically link to the information sharing system (Dynamic Expert Integration Network (DEIN)). This systems is planned to be linked to existing information sharing tools like the Dutch LCMS.