PREDICT - PREparing for the Domino effect in Crisis siTuations

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PROCeed system developed by iTTi enables flexible model building of a hypothetical or historical crisis situation, that is used to analyse the real effect of planned countermeasures and to train people to follow the procedures. Once having the situation modelled, it is possible to perform the analysis of alternative courses of situation. By this, one may optimise procedures, topology of the infrastructure, and configuration of the security and safety resources. The system uses a simulation engine, for running an executable Petri nets models and transformed from visual BPMN to executable BPEL models of procedures.

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Together with the SBR Tool, PROCeed will provide the PREDICT Tool Suite with a Foresight and Prediction Tool (FPT). The FPT will allow for the development and the analysis of different alternative scenarios of future evolution of a given situation. This component will use the available information on the considered situation (e.g. observations) and models describing the (causual) relations between problem-relevant factors (these models can be local or distributed ones) to construct multiple scenarios of the possible future course of events. The FPT will also provide a description of each individual scenario, including events within the scenario, which will be visualized by appropriate means depending on the user needs. 

Crisis management staff will be able to:

  1. Identify the area which is threatened/at risk;
  2. Identify the CI within the threatened area;
  3. Assess the threat’s first order impact to the CI elements;
  4. Identify the dependencies between CI’s elements in the area;
  5. Get insight into the possible course of action.